In the first half of the year, China's construction machinery industry as a whole showed a situation of first up and then down. After experiencing explosive growth in the first quarter, industry sales began to decline sharply in April, and continued to decline in May and June. It can be said that the rapid growth of the construction machinery industry in 2010 was reversed in April 2011. Whether this will become the turning point of the industry, the industry is very concerned about this.
Construction machinery industry slowdown, sales decline
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in the first quarter of 2011, the sales revenue of major products of major enterprises in the national construction machinery industry increased by 56.6 and the sales volume increased by 53.3; from January to April, the sales revenue increased by 51.8 and the sales volume increased by 39.4; from January to May, the sales revenue increased by 47% and the sales volume increased by 32%. It can be seen that in the first five months of 2011, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue and sales volume in the construction machinery industry slowed down month by month, and the decline was significant. Among them, the growth rate of sales revenue decreased by nearly 10 percentage points compared with the first quarter, while the sales volume decreased by 21.3 percentage points.
Since April 2011, the sales situation of major construction machinery products, including excavators, loaders, bulldozers and cranes, has taken a sharp turn for the worse, and the sales volume has begun to fall sharply, and the absolute sales volume in May and June has further shrunk. Statistics show that in April, excavator sales fell after hitting a monthly high in March, down 38.79 per cent month-on-month; loaders fell 2.86 per cent year-on-year and 28.27 per cent month-on-month; bulldozers rose 1.2 per cent year-on-year and 32.81 per cent month-on-month. In May, excavator sales showed negative growth for the first time since 2011, down 12.4 per cent year-on-year, while the month-on-month decline further widened to 47.8 per cent; loader sales remained stable year-on-year, but fell 21.3 per cent month-on-month; bulldozer sales fell 34 per cent year-on-year and 26.1 per cent month-on-month. Sales of excavators, loaders and bulldozers continued to decline in June, falling 27.6 per cent, 14.8 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively, but all narrowed slightly from the previous month.
In view of the slowdown in the growth rate of the construction machinery industry, especially the sharp decline in sales of some leading products, the "inflection point theory" has been heard all the time. Some industry insiders said that the new inflection point of the development of construction machinery has emerged, and the high growth of the industry in the past is difficult to reproduce. In the future, it may show a low growth trend, and even decline in many months.
Recently, the relevant policies issued by the state to support the construction of water conservancy facilities and indemnificatory apartment still have a certain pulling effect on the construction machinery industry, and it remains to be seen whether the inflection point has come. however, the long-term ultra-high-speed growth of an industry is unsustainable and needs to be adjusted and rational return.
The business climate of the industry has fallen, and the decline in demand is the main reason.
Generally speaking, sales in the construction machinery industry are divided into off-season and peak season. A slight decline in sales in April is a normal seasonal fluctuation, but a 30% decline in the entire industry in April 2011 is indeed rare. The main reason is the early sales overdraft and the national macroeconomic control led to the decline in market demand.
At present, the construction machinery market competition has become white-hot. In the first quarter of 2011, in order to seize more market share, manufacturers adopted escalating sales methods or excessive marketing, thus overdrawing part of the market demand. Judging from the market performance of major listed companies in the construction machinery industry, some companies have adopted mortgage, zero down payment, and financial lease interest reduction and exemption for vigorous promotion, resulting in a substantial increase of 43.06 in sales in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, and the demand of some users has been released ahead of schedule. At the same time, the balance of accounts receivable in the entire construction machinery industry was as high as 100.37 billion billion yuan, a substantial increase of 69.5 year-on-year at the beginning of the year, making the industry's operating cash flow increasingly tight, and the net operating cash flow fell sharply year-on-year.
Since 2011, in order to regulate the macro-economy, the state has issued a series of financial policies to limit the credit line of real estate and other industries. The impact of the credit crunch on the construction machinery industry is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, it affects the downstream demand of the industry, mainly due to the delay in the construction progress of some projects under construction and the delay in the start of some originally planned projects; second, it affects the marketing efforts of construction machinery enterprises. Since April, some enterprises have strengthened risk control and actively reduced the proportion of credit sales. At present, the impact of credit tightening on construction machinery sales can not be quantified, and it is expected that the annual sales will be affected.
Multiple positive factors, future prospects are promising
Due to the implementation of monetary tightening policy, the short-term decline in demand for construction machinery may continue for some time. But in the long run, affordable housing, water conservancy construction, railway construction and export recovery will provide new impetus for the development of the industry.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on July 12, 2011 proposed to improve relevant policies and measures, increase government investment and loan support, and ensure that all 10 million sets of affordable housing start construction by the end of November. This means that the national affordable housing construction is expected to usher in the peak period in the second half of the year, which will directly drive the market demand for construction machinery, especially earthmoving machinery and concrete machinery.
Water conservancy construction is also expected to become a new growth point for the construction machinery industry. In 2011, the Central Committee's No. 1 document focused on water conservancy construction and proposed to increase public financial investment in water conservancy, and strive to double the average annual investment in water conservancy in the whole society in the next 10 years than in 2010. It is expected that water conservancy investment is expected to accelerate the implementation in the second half of the year, and water conservancy construction investment projects will start on a large scale, and the construction machinery industry will benefit from it.
The export of construction machinery is growing rapidly. The global economy gradually warmed up in 2011, and the demand for construction machinery increased. From January to April 2011, the export value of China's construction machinery industry was 4.2 billion billion US dollars, an increase of 53.3 percent over the previous year. Among them, the cumulative export of complete machines was 2.71 billion US dollars, up 52.5 percent year-on-year; the export of parts and components was 1.49 billion US dollars, up 54.8 percent year-on-year.
Although the current growth rate of the construction machinery industry is slowing down, considering a variety of favorable factors, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association predicts that the sales revenue of the whole industry will increase by about 17% in 2011, and the export volume will increase by more than 25%, returning to the highest level in 2008.
Accelerate the transformation and upgrading, to achieve the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" objectives
On July 31, 2011, China's construction machinery industry "12th Five-Year" development plan was officially released. The plan points out that according to the development idea of adjusting the structure and changing the growth mode, it is predicted that the sales scale of China's construction machinery industry will reach 900 billion yuan by 2015, with an average annual growth rate of about 17%, of which the export is about 26 billion US dollars. In 2015, the industry's sales revenue and exports more than doubled compared to 2010.
In order to achieve the above goals, the construction machinery industry should continue to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading in accordance with the development strategy proposed in the plan, take the promotion of independent innovation as the central link of the transformation of the enterprise's development mode, give full play to the leading and supporting role of science and technology, and coordinate the implementation of major science and technology projects, Strengthen industry-based and common technology research, and focus on breaking through industry core technologies and key technologies, especially realizing the autonomy of key components, develop high-end equipment manufacturing, comprehensively enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises, and complete the transformation from a manufacturing country to a manufacturing power as soon as possible.
In addition, in the process of industrial upgrading, on the one hand, we should find new market growth points, eliminate backward production capacity, guide and concentrate limited resources on the weak links of industry development, and at the same time, we should be alert to the blind expansion of the production capacity of some high-end products, prevent excessive repeated construction, avoid the convergence of regional production capacity structure, strengthen coordination from a macro perspective, and maintain the balance of total supply and demand; on the other hand, especially in emerging markets, optimize the structure of export products and improve the level of international cooperation.